cyber•Fund Invest News. 2015 week 32

Success of Spells of Genesis crowdsale; Augur crowdsale details; 60% growth of cyber•Fund Portfolio and Ethereum price analytics


Crowdfunding Monitor


Spells of Genesis

BitCrystals Token Sale is successful! 103% was funded in 5 days!

  • Raised: 752 BTC (goal 730 BTC)
  • Tokens sold: 11 281 590 BCY (out of 60 000 000 BCY)
  • Number of backers: 230

Token sale is available at:

http://bitcrystals.github.io/

Despite the success, there are 48M+ tokens for the sale (almost 4/5), and to increase a number of buyers more promotional efforts are needed from the SoG’s Team.

The disclosure of more information about game mechanics, game rules, multiplayer mode and more game videos could help to attract more buyers. At the moment we can judge the game only by one video, and game mechanics looks like Pinball.

Augur

Crowdsale starts on August 17th, 2015, 12 pm (EST).

Tokens distribution:

  • Public sale: 8,800,000 REP (80%)
  • Founders: 1,760,000 REP (16%)
  • Forecast Foundation: 440,000 REP (4%)

Tokens’ price will depend on the total amount of money received. Tokens will be distributed among the participants according to their share of the total revenues. Early adopters will receive a bonus:

  • Special Revard (18%): The amounts ranged from 17.5 to 120 BTC and totaled $100,000
  • True Augur (15%): August 17- August 22, 12:00pm (EST)
  • Prophet (10%): August 22- August 27, 12:00pm (EST)
  • Nate Silver (5%): August 27 — September 5, 12:00pm (EST)

Augur genesis address to monitor funds raised:

3N6S9PLVizPuf8nZkhVzp11PKhTiuTVE6R

Crowdsale will be available at:

http://sale.augur.net/

Shortcut on Augur

Augur — Prediction Markets Platform builded with Ethereum

Augur Alpha Preview is available under a link.

Upcoming Milestones

  • Augur Beta Release
  • Accounts on Augur website similar to blockchain.info wallets
  • Scalar, categorical, and multidimensional markets in UI
  • An improved, cheaper, and more accurate consensus algorithm
  • All current alpha bugs fixed

Augur Full Release

  • Augur goes live on the Ethereum network
  • Launch contingent on passing and fixing any issues raised in security audits and months of testnet testing

Traditionally I wish success to Augur’s Team!

Preliminary result of blockchain crowdfundings

Ethereum and cyber•Fund Portfolio


Last week was a special one. On August 7th, 2015 our Portfolio reached $42,800 or 153 BTC (+337% in USD and +339% in BTC to a previous week) at a peak of ETH price (~3.5$ per ETH). But it lasted not long. The price of ETH reduced to $0.68 by the beginning of this week. And now Portfolio size is $15,800 (56 BTC).

Portfolio Week Performance
Portfolio vs Bitcoin, Performance in 2015, USD
Performance in 2015, BTC

More details about portfolio’s structure and performance you can find in the

Portfolio Performance Table

Ethereum Price

ETH market events unfolded dramatically. Trade started on Kraken with a price ~$2.5 per ETH, and went up to ~$3.5, but shortly started to fall. The total volume of trade in 4 days amounted to ~$1.5M (6k BTC)

Ethereum price history, by CoinMarketCap

Here is a table where you can see the major milestones of ETH price ups and downs:

Ethereum price analytics 7–10 August 2015

Price for “Buyers” and “Sellers” modes:

Buyers mode ETH price = Sum of BTC held for buy orders / Sum of requested in buy orders ETH
Sellers mode ETH price = Sum of BTC requested in sell orders / Sum of ETH held for sell orders

This table shows market depth:

Ethereum market depth analytics, 7–10 August 2015

From Trade Volumes Chart we can conclude that price peak was caused by a deficit of ETHs. As soon as sufficiant amount of ETHs appeared on the market ETH’s price went down.

We see that expectations of Ethereum Genesis Sale Bakers are at the point of ~$3. We did not participate in sales at $3.5 because of deposit delay obstacle.

Let’s try to predict a direction of a price movement. Here are some facts:

  • the current demand is ~$350K, i.e. less than daily trade volumes
  • a number of requested ETH’s = 3M vs 400k that are offered.
  • a price of the “Buyers mode” is not profitable for the participants of the Genesis Sale
  • an amount of mined coins is ~300k ETH
  • costs of mined coins are~$200k

Based on the facts that current demand can not be covered by mined coins and that participants of the Genesis Sale want to get some profit I think that the price will go up in the near future.

@21xhipster: At current levels of difficulty an average cost to mine 1 ether is about $0.2 (capex: 1 year return, opex: 0,05 cents/kWh). Spot mining profitability is very high. So in the next 3 weeks we expect 8% daily difficulty growth until a moment when supply from miners will be limited by market forces. I think at that point bulls will have an upper hand.

To see Ethereum Market Cap in real time and other useful information visit: Ethereum at cyber•Fund


Be calm and patient, analyse, think long-term and profits will come!


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